Sony Open

Sony Open

It was a pretty humdrum start to 2024 for us with none of our team of four seriously in the hunt heading in to Sunday.

Our headline pick Collin Morikawa started really brightly on Thursday however ultimately he had ‘one of those’ weeks on the greens we know he is prone to and in the end we had to be grateful that he pinched a very small share of the place money for us.

The event itself turned in to the usual low scoring birdie fest we’ve come to expect at Kapalua and after Chris Kirk and Sahith Theegala battled things out down the stretch it was the Georgia man who took home the spoils.

So with the first event of 2023 wrapped up move on to the second event and the second leg of the ‘Hawaii swing’ the Sony Open.

The Sony Open was first played on the PGA Tour in 1965 and has been held at the same venue Waialae Country Club since its inception.

The first lead sponsor was United Airlines who took up the duties in 1991 before current sponsor Sony took over the reins in 1999.

The strength of field benefits from a knock on effect from the increased field size at last weeks Sentry with 32 of the 59 players who teed it up Maui making the trip to Ohau including Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth and defending champion here Hideki Matsuyama, however the majority of the biggest names who were in Maui such as Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schuffele, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa are not in attendance.

At the time of writing Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick are vying for favouritism with course specialist Russell Henley next in the market.

COURSE

As noted above the event has been hosted at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu since it was first played on tour in 1965.

The course was designed by Seth Raynor who also designed the Old White Course used for the Greenbrier.
The course is a Par 70 playing to just over 7000 yards and features Bermuda Greens.

The two par 5s are the 9th and the 18th. Both are great birdie opportunities with the 9th usually playing to the easier stroke average of the two.

While the fairways aren’t overly tight at Waialae it is important to find them as the key to success here is accurate approach play in to smallish greens to set up plenty of birdie opportunities. In a nutshell strong iron play and a hot putter will be the order of the day to get the job done.

As is always the case in Hawaii wind is also a key factor here and how much it blows is largely responsible for dictating how tough or otherwise the course will play.

HISTORY

So, let’s take a look at the last ten winners;

2023 – SW Kim
2022 – H Matsuyama
2021 – K Na
2020 – C Smith
2019 – M Kuchar
2018 – P Kizzire
2017 – J Thomas
2016 – F Gomez
2015 – J Walker
2014 – J Walker

The most important factor to note here is that eight of the last ten editions of the event, have been won by a player who had played in the Sentry event the week before, so it pays to focus on those who teed it up at Kapalua.

Until 2020 we were on a streak of six from six in relation to this stat however Cameron Smith’s victory broke the run. Prior to the Aussie’s success the last player to win here without playing in Maui the week before was Russell Henley in 2013. Henley is also the most recent player to officially win their first tour title here, however Smith’s previous success was in the Zurich pairs event so realistically you can say he added to that number.

2021 and 2022 saw a return to the norm with players who had played the week before triumphing in the shape of Na and Matsuyama however last years champion Si Woo Kim again bucked the trend by winning on his first start of the year.

As we can see from the table below, which shows the finish of the winner of the Sony at Kapalua the week before, while it is not necessarily the case that the player who has won in Honolulu was right in the mix at Kapalua, a solid week there has as a rule historically been the order of the day with prior to 2021 Jimmy Walker’s 21st place finish in 2014 being the worst showing of any of the seven winners here who had played the previous week. In 2021 however Kevin Na bucked that trend by winning here having finished a lowly 38th at Kapalua the week before.

Sentry ToC Finish

2023 – SW Kim DNP
2022 – H Matsuyama 13th
2021 – K Na 38
2020 – C Smith DNP
2019 – M Kuchar 19th
2018 – P Kizzire 15th
2017 – J Thomas 1st
2016 – F Gomez 6th
2015 – J Walker 2nd
2014 – J Walker 21st
2013 – R Henley DNP
2012 – J Wagner 9th

The obvious conclusion from the above is that while great form the week before isn’t a requisite a ‘run out’ the previous week is as a rule of significance.

To add to this it is worth noting that although Cam Smith broke the streak in 2020 of winners who had tee’d it up at Kapalua the young Aussie had been in action in the big events held in Australia and in the Presidents Cup well in to December so it could be argued he was still very much ‘match sharp’ when he arrived at Waialae CC.

Four of the last ten winners were not American [SW Kim, Matsuyama, Smith & Fabien Gomez] while looking at the winners from the US it is clear this event as a whole has been a domain for players who either hail from southern states or had a proven track record in events played in eastern/southern states of the US..

There have been two wins from Texas based Walker [as will as wins for Texan’s Johnson Wagner & Ryan Palmer in previous years] while other other winners from the US over the past ten years, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire and Justin Thomas also fit this bill [as does 2013 winner Russell Henley] with Vegas resident Na again the one who bucked this pattern.

In other words while you can ‘never say never’, not unsurprisingly allowing for the Bermuda greens, this is not historically an event won by players hailing from the West Coast of the US.

The next stat that certainly leaps out from recent years is that two players who have won here, Kuchar and Kizzire also won the Mayakoba the previous fall, a feat that was also achieved in 2011/12 by Johnson Wagner. Finally, more recently then of course, Waialae specialist Russell Henley added the Mayakoba trophy to his cabinet in 2022.
Meanwhile following Si Woo’s win last year it is striking that four of the last seven winners, The South Korean, Smith, Kuchar and Thomas have also triumphed at TPC Sawgrass.

There is no doubt then that these two courses correlate well here!

In addition to form at the Mayakoba and The Players it is also worth looking at form at events held at other short coastal tracks such as the RBC Heritage, The RSM Classic and the Bermuda Championship.

Finally on a course correlation front the obvious link with The Greenbrier, also designed by Seth Raynor, is there to see with 2021 winner Kevin Na and runner up Joaquin Niemann both having triumphed at The Old White.

While past course form is always useful it doesn’t seem hugely pertinent here. Last years winner Si Woo Kim had finished fourth here on debut in 2016 but had managed nothing better than 25th in four subsequent visits prior to his win while 2022 champion Maysuyama had a best of 12th and only two top 20s in eight previous starts. 2018 winner Patton kizzire had missed the cut on his only previous visit and Fabien Gomez had a best of 67th in three previous visits, and of course Henley was making his debut.

Conversely though 2019 winner Matt Kuchar had a really solid bank of form here, which saw him finish 13th in 2016 and third, sixth and fifth in the three years prior to that while 2020 winner Cam Smith had finished in the top thirty here the previous three years with a best of 18th so he had also built up some good history here.

Jimmy Walker had notched one top five here in plenty of previous visit and Na had played here 13 times prior to winning and had posted three top ten’s amongst plenty of poorer performances and MC so he had a real mixed bag here.

The highest winning score in the last 10yrs is -11 from Smith last year when the wind was an issue however as a rule the winning score has been -20 or lower with Matsuyama posting 23- under in 2022. Last year though things were a little tougher with Si Woo posting 19- under. Ultimately though if the wind does not get up this is clearly a low scoring event.

WEATHER FORECAST

It looks like we could see a fair degree of rain this week with the pre event days in particular showing some heavy rain in the forecast. Meanwhile Thursday & Friday show the potential for further rainfall.

Temperatures look set to sit in the low to mid 80s.

The wind, which is the courses main defence looks like it could play a part with all days showing possible gusts in the forecast of above 20mph.

All In all then the weather could very much play a part this week.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

JT POSTON – 33/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 6th

2023 was very much a ‘game of two halves’ for The Postman as after a patchy first six months he really found his form from July onwards.

Five top seven finishes in nine starts in the second half of the year and no missed cuts are testament to where JT’s game was at through the back end of 2023 and a fifth place last week at Kapalua indicates he has taken that momentum in to the New Year.

A winner at the Wyndham, which ties well with Si Woo Kim, JT’s neat and tidy tee to green game anchored with his strong putting makes him a good fit for Waialae CC. Granted his record here isn’t great however his 21st last year showed promise and as noted earlier previous course form here has never been that key.

I’ll take the 30yr old then to do as many have done before here and build on a strong week in Maui by making a bold bid for a win here.

HARRIS ENGLISH – 45/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 10th

I have gone with three players this week who were in last weeks field and the second of these is Harris English.

English has been a regular in Honolulu over the years and although his form hasn’t been as strong here in more recent times he can boast three top tens on the spin in years gone by so we know he is comfortable here.

With a win at the Mayakoba on his CV Harris’ name should always be on the shortlist here. Furthermore with his comeback win in 2021 coming at the Sentry we have another nice link to here as plenty of players have triumphed at both Hawaii venues over the years with Cam Smith the most recent. If you then add in the fact that Harris’ two other PGA wins came on par 70 layouts in Memphis and at The Travelers and there really are a lot of pointers to him this week.

2023 was an up and down year for English however he finished the year strongly with just one missed cut from May onwards and after starting slowly in Maui he played really nicely on his way to 14th place.

PATRICK RODGERS – 80/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 24th

Patrick Rodgers is not a player who would normally be on my radar for this event however his performance in Maui was really eye catching and I just felt he was worth risking at the odds.

What particularly grabbed my attention on Rodgers’ Kapalua debut was that he ranked tenth in approach play for the week and third in good old fashioned GIR, areas, which we know are not normally his strength. Meanwhile as is more often than not the case for debutants there it was the flat stick, which presented him from finishing higher up the board than 14th.

While Patrick has nothing at all on his resume at Waialae of note he has shown he is at home on shorter coastal tracks such as at the RSM where he lost out to Charles Howell in a play off, a player who has an excellent record here, while he also has a third place to his name at Bermuda.

It was a tricky end to 2023 for Rodgers on the PGA Tour with off course priorities taking precedent, however having secured his top 50 spot he then played nicely in Australia and his performance last week shows me that he is really looking to push on as 2024 starts and I can see this being a big breakout year for him.

JUSTIN SUH – 80/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Having started with three players who were in last weeks field in Maui I’ll wrap up with two who weren’t beginning with Justin Suh.

Suh strikes me as a player who it could really pay dividends to follow this year and I fully expect him to bag his first win.

Suh finished his rookie season a very respectable 72nd on the Fedex Cup with his name popping up on leaderboards on a consistent basis throughout the campaign. Unfortunately though for Justin he couldn’t quite put four rounds together with Sunday’s often a learning curve for him.

That said a fifth place by the coast at the Honda and a sixth plays at TPC Sawgrass, which we know links really well here showed us he is more than comfortable by the coast. Furthermore Justin was right in the mix for a win on another short par 70 at the ZOZO at the back end of the year before another disappointing Sunday, while he then pieced four great rounds together by the coast in Mexico to finish fourth.

Justin’s 41st on debut here last year, which included a Friday 65 showed plenty of promise and I’m keen to side with him as he starts off his 2024 campaign.

KEVIN KISNER – 250/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Finally I will take a flyer at the odds that a stint in the commentary box last week might just have done enough to get the juices flowing for Kevin Kisner to compete at a course we know he loves.

A master of shorter and/or coastal tracks Kisner’s most recent win came at the Wyndham in 2021, something which means he remains exempt this season despite his horrendous 2022/23 campaign.

Kisner’s game got so bad in 2023 that he stepped away at the Travelers in June before returning in Napa in the Fall having started working again with his previous long term coach John Tillery.

While he produced nothing spectacular in his three Fall starts Kevin, one more than he had managed all year prior to that. Something to build on then as he looks to get his career back on track and what better place to start than at a venue he has notched four top five finishes in his past seven visits.

Still only 39 Kisner is certainly not looking at the commentary booth full time yet for his career and at huge three figure odds I’ll roll the dice that he can find some magic on the back of watching his Georgia buddy Chris Kirk triumph last week.